Because in-flight turbulence can occur with little warning, predicting whether a ride in the sky will be bumpy or smooth is not easy—in fact, the most dependable weather models won't hazard a forecast for more than a day or so into the future.
However, historical data can teach us something about the conditions under which turbulence is more likely to rattle an airliner, according to Ignacio Gallego-Marcos, a Sweden-based specialist in turbulence modeling and computational fluid dynamics.
Gallego-Marcos is the mastermind behind Turbli, a website where users can get free turbulence forecasts for flights up to 36 hours in advance, based on data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other sources.
"The most turbulent regions," Gallego-Marcos told Frommer's in an email, "are those that combine high jet stream activity and high mountain ranges."
Consequently, areas with the highest turbulence are usually over towering ranges such as the Andes and Himalayas.
The Most Turbulent Flight Routes in the World
Acording to data collected by Turbli in 2024, the 10 flight routes listed below have the highest levels of turbulence in the world.
The measurement scientists use for turbulence is the eddy dissipation rate (EDR). Turbulence with an EDR of 0 to 20 is considered light, 20 to 40 is moderate, 40 to 60 is strong, 60 to 80 is severe, and 80 to 100 is extreme.
The shakiest routes in Turbli's top 10 averaged EDRs in the moderate range for the year. According to Weather.gov, "changes in altitude" can occur with planes experiencing that degree of turbulence, but the aircraft should remain in the pilots' control. Passengers, meanwhile, will feel "definite strains against seat belts," and "food service and walking will be difficult."
The 10 most turbulent flight routes in 2024, according to Turbli:
- 1. Mendoza, Argentina (MDZ) – Santiago, Chile (SCL): 24.684 EDR
- 2. Córdoba, Argentina (COR) – Santiago (SCL): 20.214 EDR
- 3. Mendoza (MDZ) – Salta, Argentina (SLA): 19.825 EDR
- 4. Mendoza (MDZ) – San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina (BRC): 19.252 EDR
- 5. Kathmandu, Nepal (KTM) – Lhasa, Tibet (LXA): 18.817 EDR
- 6. Chengdu, China (CTU) – Lhasa (LXA): 18.644 EDR
- 7. Santa Cruz, Bolivia (VVI) – Santiago (SCL): 18.598 EDR
- 8. Kathmandu (KTM) – Paro, Bhutan (PBH): 18.563 EDR
- 9. Chengdu (CTU) – Xining, China (XNN): 18.482 EDR
- 10. San Carlos de Bariloche (BRC) – Santiago (SCL): 18.475 EDR
No North American routes made the top 10, but Turbli's continent-by-continent rankings show that flights navigating the mountains of the western U.S. endured the most domestic turbulence in 2024, with flights between Albuquerque, New Mexico (ABQ), and Denver (DEN) placing first for North American turbulence with an EDR of 17.751. The route from Denver to Jackson, Wyoming (JAC), was next-bumpiest (17.454 EDR), followed by Jackson to Salt Lake City (SLC; 17.419 EDR).
You can see the complete breakdown by continent as well as previous years' rankings at Turbli's website.
The site also has a list of 2024's most turbulent airports, based on an average measured over a 120-mile-diameter circle surrounding the facility and 20,000 feet above it.
Here are the five airport locations with the most turbulence in their immediate vicinity, according to Turbli:
1. Santiago, Chile
2. Mendoza, Argentina
3. Salta, Argentina
4. Kathmandu, Nepal
5. Lhasa, Tibet
As with flight routes, North America's most turbulent airports are on the western side of the continent, starting with the top three: Denver; Bozeman, Montana (BZN); and Albuquerque, in that order.
Go to Turbli's website for the full airport rankings or to learn more about how the data is gathered and analyzed.
If you're worried about encountering turbulence on your next flight, try to keep in mind that in-flight bumpiness—though unpleasant and increasingly common—hardly ever results in injuries for passengers and that instances of turbulence causing major damage to aircraft are vanishingly rare.
As aviation meteorology expert Thomas Guinn advised passengers in a Frommer's story from 2023, "Put your seat belt on and leave it on. There’s very little that can hurt you if you stay seated, if you’re buckled in.”
